The independent EV ledger for crypto TCG gachaWe buy the packs ourselves

Gacha Report

Pack EV · Odds Grades · Redemption Tests

The house edge, itemized.

Collector Crypt’s gacha machines return 93.7–95.1¢ per dollar — every one of them, from the $50.00 pack to the $5,000.00 pack. That figure uses the odds and the buyback rates the platform publishes itself. Gacha Report runs the same arithmetic across the category, and checks what the platforms leave out by spending our own money.

The honest starting point: most packs are expected-value negative. The useful questions are by how much, where the edge is hidden, and what it costs to get a card out. Every figure here is sourced and dated.

What this site is, and where the evidence stops

What we have done

  • Read the published odds off live purchase screens on four platforms and worked out what they mean net of fees.
  • Taken real redemption quotes on four platforms, and run one redemption through to payment.
  • Bought packs, sold cards, and traced a fee on-chain that we could not find disclosed anywhere.
  • Published our own referral terms, and retracted seven things we got wrong.

Gaps we are still filling

  • Our first physical redemption is still in transit. Until one arrives we can tell you what a redemption is quoted at, but not what turns up or what customs charges.
  • Our index grades disclosure, not draw fairness. We check what each platform publishes; auditing those published odds against real outcomes is work still ahead of us, which is why every grade tops out at B.
  • Our figures come from published data rather than from a large sample of our own rips. Volume is the thing we most want to add.
  • We cover seven platforms, and more exist.

We would rather you knew that up front than discovered it later. The arithmetic on this site is solid and checkable; the hands-on evidence is real but still thin, and growing week by week.

The number we keep coming back to

Collector Crypt’s machines return 93.7–95.1¢ per dollar — from the $50.00 pack to the $5,000.00 pack.

Each one advertises more value than it charges. Each one pairs that with a buyback rate that takes the surplus back. The two move in opposite directions and land in the same place, which is why the expected loss barely shifts across a hundredfold change in price. See the full arithmetic.

Collector Crypt machines: advertised versus realizable return
PackAdvertised per $1BuybackActually per $1
$50.001.10385%0.937
$100.001.05790%0.951
$250.001.05390%0.948
$1,000.001.01993%0.948
$2,500.001.02193%0.950
$5,000.001.01993%0.947

Published figures read from the live interface 2026-08-04

What we’ve published

Start here · Guide

How to buy Pokémon cards online

New to this? One question decides everything: are you acquiring a specific card, or buying entertainment? They want completely different products, and confusing them is where the money goes.

Analysis · Collector Crypt

Every pack advertises a profit. Every pack pays about 95¢.

All 6 machines we have measured publish an expected value above the pack price — and every one returns 93.7–95.1¢ per dollar once you apply the buyback rate printed beside it. The loss barely moves across a 100× price range, or across franchises.

The standard every number here meets

  • Source-linked: every figure traces to a platform's own disclosure, its API, or a quote we took ourselves.
  • Timestamped: every figure carries the date it was captured. Stale data gets flagged, not hidden.
  • Labeled: published odds and our estimates are never mixed, and estimates say so.
  • Server-rendered: every number is in the page source. No JavaScript shell between you and the data.
  • Corrected in public: when we get something wrong, we say so and date it. We have retracted seven claims so far.

Read the methodology — including exactly how we get paid, and what our referral points are actually worth.

In progress

Physical redemptions are in transit on Collector Crypt and MNSTR. Neither platform quotes import tax, so what a redemption actually costs an international buyer is only knowable on delivery — we will publish the customs invoices, the dates, and the condition of what arrives. Shipping quotes for those platforms are already up at redemption costs.